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Belmont Stakes Picks 2015 June 4, 2015

Posted by Jim Berkin in Horse Racing.
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edthesurfer

This year’s Belmont, I think, is the best chance we’ve had for a Triple Crown winner since before I’ll Have Another’s injury took him out of competing in the Belmont a couple of years back. 37 years is a long time, and while the two main Belmont elements that usually combine to scuttle Triple Crown hopes  – the longer distance & the presence of runners who have not run in either or both of the first two legs of the crown – are present,  American Pharaoh still appears as a clear favorite in this relatively small field.

Science also confirms how difficult, if not impossible, it is for horses to win the Triple Crown. And you can’t argue with SCIENCE!!!! (That is, unless you’ve been paying attention to the ever-changing dietary guidelines emanating from the morons who gave us the “food pyramid,” among other crap. But I digress!)

For what it’s worth (and you could scroll down to review my decent success in both the Derby & The Preakness, thank you very much), I don’t think any other contender beats Pharoah if and only if Pharoah runs his standard race and his standard pace. And if he did, he’d run this one practically from gate to wire.  The one horse in the field I could see challenging him early and possibly dueling him right down the line is Madefromlucky, and that’s who I’d pick as the most likely upset if anything goes awry with Pharoah’s standard trip. At a morning line of 12-1, it might be a worthwhile bet, and definitely one to add to any exotic bet.

Assuming a few things go wrong with Pharoah and he’s out of the picture, another horse I could see sneaking in there (that is, is everything goes perfectly for him) is the other Todd Pletcher entry, Materiality. He’d have to run as well as he did in the Florida Derby, and with his jockey switched back from Kentucky’s Castellano to Velazquez, who knows? Velazquez has never lost a race with him. (Castellano will be riding Madefromlucky instead). Materiality has a morning line of 6-1, another one worth looking at for exotics.

If Frosted ran the race of his life, he might also have a shot, but I only see him with a good chance of finishing in the money somewhere other than first, and I’d definitely have him part of any trifecta or superfecta play. I think he’d have too much to make up after trying to keep up with an early pace that’s a little too fast for his liking.

So, that’s my 1-2-3-4 in order, fwiw. In the past, I’ve usually bet exactas and supers on this race, but the fields were bigger and the pools were more spread out. Not sure how I’ll approach this one on Saturday. The idea of an all G1 stakes level pick 4 intrigues me as well – correctly calling an upsetter to Pharoah within it would most likely mean a decent payoff.

 

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Belmont Stakes Predictions 2012 June 7, 2012

Posted by Jim Berkin in Horse Racing.
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3 comments

So, will we have a triple crown? It’s certainly been a while since Affirmed took it, back when disco ruled the airwaves and Saturday Night Live was funny.  1978 was a long long time ago to be sure.

Why? Well, probably because horses really aren’t being bred and trained for the Triple Crown anymore. There are hardly any mile and a half races like the Belmont, and horses aren’t running long routes every two to three weeks the way the Kentucky Derby-Preakness-Belmont clip comes along. So most often, the Derby winners fail to win the Preakness. Every so often like this year, we get the excitement of a Derby/Preakness winner going into the Belmont, usually as a favorite only because of the wishful thinking that a Triple Crown winner will generate excitement for the sport in a time when its popularity is waning, especially when pitted against other forms of gambling.

Which is too bad, since it’s a great sport. And all the PR damage & lack of market-building to a younger audience is nearly entirely self-inflicted. Stupid infighting means we have no HD cable channel entirely devoted to the sport, covering all races & providing high quality analysis featuring the leading handicappers from around the nation. The star power of both specific horses, trainers & jockeys is frittered away.

Oh, don’t get me started. But I won’t fly into a rant here about how I’m often the youngest guy in the Vegas sports book betting horses, and I’m an OLD FART, fer cryin out loud.

It’s time to pick the Belmont! Yay!

Well, I’ll state right off that I don’t think we’ll have a Triple Crown. Yeah, I’m sure I’ll Have Another will run a great race, but it’s that long length of the Belmont that becomes the final test, where horses who run a mile or even a mile and a quarter like lightning weaken and falter towards the end of that final stretch. Think back to the Kentucky Derby when I’ll Have Another pulled that late surge to pass Bodemeister… there was also another horse putting on an amazing late surge, but without enough speed to overtake the winner, and that horse was Dullahan. But Dullahan was moving faster than I’ll Have Another at that point, and would passed him with another quarter mile tacked on. And that was after chasing the lightning pace being set by Bodemeister, something that will not be happening here. And Dullahan has had more rest than I’ll Have Another by skipping the Preakness.

So, I’ll be picking Dullahan as my top choice to win.

I think I’ll Have Another has a great chance to hit the board, however, and I’ll certainly include him in any exotics I put together, although I can only see two other horses possibly winning this race: Paynter & Union Rags.  Both of them can probably run this distance well, and both accelerate nicely in route stretches.

And that’s the 1-2-3-4 order I think they’ll finish. The only possible surprise I might throw into the mix for hitting the board and not winning would be Street Life, who has gotten steadily better with each race, is in good condition, and also runs very well in a route stretch.

I’d love to see another Triple Crown, but I don’t think it’ll happen this year. But I’ll be happy to be wrong since it’ll be good for the sport (though not as good as all the ideas that would flow from my brilliant rant. And that rule applies to nearly all subjects.)

UPDATE: So, the radio greets me this morning with the news that I’ll Have Another has been scratched due to tendonitis & will also be retired to the stud farm. I keep writing to Victoria’s Secret about the idea of retiring me to a slightly different style of stud farm with no success. Conspiracy theories abound on various horse racing boards, but the bottom line is that a lot of the excitement has gone out of this race. I’ll stick with my picks for the top 4 possibilities, however… although after seeing how many random posts to comment boards list the same horses I have, I’m guessing the payoffs on exotics will be minimal here. Dullahan has already gone from 5-1 to 9-5 in the morning line. Ah well.