Football Picks: Weekend of November 2-3, 2019

I skipped picks last week with all the distractions, plus doing pretty badly the week before. Season totals stand at a you-may-as-well-flip-a-coin 39-38-3.

But with a lot of work done and other crap dealt with, it’s time to plunge back in and see what happens. I’m trying to be stricter in throwing possible bets out, so let’s see if that has a positive effect.

In the college games:

Pittsburgh by 7 over Georgia Tech

Cincinnati by 23 1/2 over East Carolina (the secret 51st state)

Kansas State by 4 1/2 over Kansas

LA Lafayette by 22 1/2 over Texas State

SMU plus 5 1/2 against Memphis (a good matchup)

Oregon State plus 5 1/2 against Arizona (probably my iffiest one, tbh)

In the NFL:

Jaguars plus 1 1/2 against the Texans

Panthers by 3 over the Titans

Colts by 1 over the Steelers

Packers by 3 1/2 over the Chargers

I also think the Patriots will win out over the Ravens in what’s probably the best game of the week. Will they cover the 3 1/2 or just win by a field goal? I’m figuring they cover or just lose it outright, to be honest…. so I’ll go with cover! The power of positive thinking.

Football Picks: Weekend of October 19, 2019

Improved a little last week, so hopefully it’ll be a big MO-MENTUM builder into this week, where I’m exclusively picking college games. None of the NFL spreads catch my eye, sorry.

Went 7-4-1 last week for season totals of 35-31-3. Barely above .500. Gotta add to that… so here goes.

Georgia State plus 4 against Army (and don’t you DARE question my patriotism!)

Central Michigan by 10 1/2 over Bowling Green

UCF by 33 over East Carolina

Cincinnati by 17 1/2 over Tulsa

Texas by 21 1/2 over Kansas

Boise State by 7 over BYU

LSU by 17 1/2 over Mississippi State

Ole Miss plus 5 1/2 against Texas A&M

North Carolina by 3 1/2 over Virginia Tech

Appalachian State by 15 over LA Monroe

Penn State by 8 1/2 over Michigan

Best bets out of those, I’d say… are Central Michigan, UCF, Boise State, LSU, Appalachian State and Penn State. Those are the teams I’d probably mix up in a few permutations for parlays.

Football Picks For The Weekend of October 12-13, 2019

Watching an unemotional baseball playoff right now (Cards ? Nats? I don’t care…. waiting for the Yankees to take on the – gulp – Astros tomorrow. Tho Sanchez is pitching a real beaut…) so I ran some numbers and came up with some mostly college football picks and one pro pick. Last week I did well with college and crap with pro, so I’m feelin’ the burn. Worked out to 6-6 for the week, season totals 28-27-2. May as well flip a coin.

EXCEPT FOR THIS WEEK, WHEN I WILL GO 12-0!!!!!

Let’s start with taking Texas +10 1/2 at home against Oklahoma, in what ought to be a decent game.

Central Michigan by 10 over New Mexico State

Missouri by 12 over Ole Miss

Mississippi State by 6 1/2 over Tennessee

UNLV +15 against Vanderbilt

Wisconsin by 10 1/2 over Michigan State

Texas A&M +17 against Alabama (I think they’ll lose but beat the spread)

Florida Atlantic by 11 1/2 over Mid Tennessee State

UAB by 12 over UTSA

Notre Dame by 10 1/2 over USC

Wyoming +4 against SDSU in a game I think they can win outright

And my sole NFL pick – the Seahawks by 1 1/2 over the Browns.

If I had to make a parlay play, I guess I’d group Central Michigan, Missouri, UAB, Notre Dame, Wyoming and the Seahawks. Those are probably the picks I feel best about.

Although I’m still down with a cold and don’t feel great altogether….

Caveat emptor.

Football Picks: Weekend of October 5-6, 2019

Here’s what I often do: Take a 12 oz glass and throw 3-4 ice cubes in it. Then, I add about 2-3 finger widths of Jack Daniels or Bulleit Rye. Then maybe a teaspoon of lemon juice, and top it off with some fresh brewed iced tea. (Then drink, obviously).

After my performance in picking games last week, I might need to do this repeatedly. Good thing I get those giganto bottles of JD and Bulleit at Costco.

Started out well, felt great – got my first 3 picks… and then the remaining 7 went sour. Bah. Season totals are barely above even, at 22-21-2.

So this week, it will ALL TURN AROUND and I can drink my whiskey concoctions in total bliss. My stomach will thank me.

College Games:

Boston College +6 against Louisville (they did it for me last week…)

SMU -13 over Tulsa

Georgia -25 over Tennessee

Navy +3 1/2 against Air Force

Kansas +32 against Oklahoma (I think Oklahoma wins, but does not cover)

Arkansas State -7 1/2 over Georgia State

NFL:

Jaguars +3 1/2 against the Panthers (I think the Jags will win outright)

Vikings – 5 1/2 over the Giants

Saints -3 over the Buccaneers

Chargers – 6 1/2 over the Broncos (risky…. but Broncos are awful on the road)

Cowboys – 3 1/2 over the Packers (great matchup, and I think Cowboys win it)

Chiefs -11 over the Colts (another risky one.. Chiefs might win without covering, but I’ll go for it)

None of these games really jumped out to me as amazingly easy bets, to be honest. If I had to pick my top choices, I’d probably say Arkansas State and the Jaguars, maybe followed by Georgia. But no top picks this week, really.

Here’s a picture of a kitten drinking beer foam. Skoal!

Football Picks: Weekend of September 27-29, 2019

The sure-thing picks last week were 4-0, everybody! That’s a 14-1 parlay bet, y’know. Overall I was 8-6-1 for a season total of 19-14-2. Not great, not terrible. 54%. Good enough for a pro, I guess, but NOT good enough for ME.

Yeah, ME! The guy who adorns his degenerate gambling picks with a photo of William Schallert since “The Trouble With Tribbles” is on.

Whatever. Ten total picks this week, so let’s win some money. Top picks, once again, are in italics.

College Games

Duke +3 against Virginia Tech

Penn State -6 over Maryland

Boston College + 6 1/2 against Wake Forest (in a pick where I question my sanity, but I’ll keep telling myself how ANGRY BC remains after that embarrassing upset a couple of weeks ago. And then there were the tribbles in their chicken sandwich and coffee. As near as I can tell, they’re born pregnant. All you have to do is stop feeding them.)

Iowa State – 2 1/2 over Baylor

Fresno State – 17 1/2 over New Mexico State

Utah State -24 over Colorado State

NFL Games

Colts – 6 1/2 over the Raiders

Chiefs – 6 1/2 over the Lions

Patriots -7 over the Bills

Rams -10 over the Buccaneers

So there you go. And I have never questioned the orders or the intelligence of any representative of the Federation. Until now.

Football Picks, Weekend of September 21-22, 2019

I’m relieved to see the Pats have released Antonio Brown. He made a lot of money for one game, but he’s just not worth all the drama and baggage he brings. They have a light schedule for the first half of the season and they’ll get N’Keal Harry back for the second half.

So here’s hoping the strength & training coaches for the Yankees don’t moonlight for the Pats, giving them the never-ending rash of injuries that’s plagued my baseball team all friggin year.

While I didn’t do too well last week with my picks, I will stick to the same historic analysis theory I’ve mostly been working with since I believe it will be successful over the long haul. SO THERE. Season totals are 11-8-1 so far.

I’ve identified my stronger-Spidey-sense picks in italics.

College games:

UCF -11 over Pitt

Northwestern +9 against Michigan State

Syracuse -4 1/2 over Western Michigan

Wisconsin -3 over Michigan

Arizona State – 8 1/2 over Colorado

Georgia State +3 against Texas State

LSU -24 1/2 over Vanderbilt

Appalachian State + 2 1/2 against North Carolina (probably my strongest inkling to be honest, based on the historic patterns)

UAB -10 1/2 over Southern Alabama

Georgia -14 1/2 over Notre Dame

Washington State -18 1/2 over UCLA

Pro Games:

Packers -7 over Broncos

Rams -3 over Browns

and I gotta take the Pats -21 1/2 over the Jets. As much as you never see NFL spreads that big, the Jets look just awful, the Pats look great, and it’s in Foxboro. I’d also lean towards the Cowboys covering their huge 22 1/2 point spread over the clearly-tanking Dolphins. Oh why not… I’ll pick the Cowboys to cover.

So there ya go, 15 SURE WINNERS! And all for free… I’m just too damn generous, aren’t I?

Football Picks For The Weekend of September 13-15, 2019

You woulda won money taking my advice last week. Did you?

I told myself if I got 7 out my 9 picks last week, I’d open up some offshore web sportsbook account since it looks like the long arm of the law doesn’t really care about them anymore. Thanks to a recent Supreme Court decision, numerous states have begun to legalize sports betting and make it available. California will get around to it at some point, despite how amazingly stupid the state government is out here.

But so far it’s all academic… I went 6-2-1. Not bad, I admit, but I have to keep my promise to myself. I didn’t make 7, and even if the Rams covered the final spread of 2.5, I had taken them at 3. Gotta be fair. And considering how I yelled angrily at my TV over some ref calls in the Saints game where all I had on the line was my ego (priceless, I know), maybe it’ll be better for my general health if I don’t bet real money on this nonsense every week.

But I’m back again, with more picks that YOU can feel free to bet. Most of them are college games. Week 2 of the NFL is always loaded with overreactions to week 1, and all of the lopsided scores of last week (including the happy Patriots one) mess with my analysis of spreads. So I’m passing on most of Sunday’s NFL action, except for 2 games:

Continue reading “Football Picks For The Weekend of September 13-15, 2019”

Some Football Picks For Sep 7-8, 2019

It’s been a while since I posted my football gambling picks on this blog. Why not kick off the NFL season with a bunch of picks ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEED to make money?

Well, if not for you, certainly for Vegas or whatever offshore online sportsbook you’re throwing money away on. Someone will make money off these picks.

I didn’t post my college picks for Week 1 last week, but TRUST ME, I did better than 50%. This time, it’ll be on the record.

Let’s start with those whiny college bums, shall we?

I like Army plus 22 1/2 at Michigan. Michigan ought to win this game, but I don’t think they’ll win by THAT much, and Army is actually a pretty decent team. And speaking of huge spreads that I don’t think will be covered, I’ll go ahead and take likely game loser New Mexico State plus a whopping 55 against Alabama. ‘Bama will win, and ‘Bama will absolutely CRUSH opponents, especially when they play out of conference, but they usually don’t roll up the points to such a huge degree – I could see them winning this game by 30-ish or even 40-ish points, but 55? I’ll take my chances with history here.

As bad as they looked last week, I think Missouri can cover 13 over West Virginia, who have a LONG history of failing against the spread in September games historically. Missouri’s at home, they want to make up for looking like crap last week, I think that’s a recipe for a 2+ score margin here.

And speaking of looking like crap and being bitten by the bug, USC opened a 3 point favorites over Stanford. It’s down to 1, but even with the wildcard of the backup frosh QB needing to step in for USC, I’ll go with a most likely more solid (in the immortal words of Linc Hayes) Stanford team plus the 1 point.

I looked over the opening NFL lines, and as reluctant as I am to usually bet the NFL during September at all, I gotta say that a few of these jumped out at me as real possibilities. I think the Forty Niners can cover 1 over the Buccaneers, and that the Jimmy G has returned Niners will do decently this year, although that division is really a lock for the Rams. And speaking of the Rams, I’ll take them to roll up some points in a “we lost the Superbowl by not scoring, so here’s a message that our offense is still here” type game and cover 3 over the Panthers.

I like the Chiefs to cover 3 1/2 over the Jaguars. As much as the Jags should be better this year with a decent QB and less drama than last year’s huge disappointing season, the Chiefs under Andy Reid always get off to a flying start, scoring a lot of points and getting everyone to believe until they slow down during the second half of the season and fall to my team in the playoffs. But week 1, to cover only 3 1/2? I’ll buy that for a dollar.

Another team looking to send a message after getting totally robbed last year would be the Saints, who I can see pounding a Texan team in some disarray, suffering some key injuries in the preseason. Take the Saints to cover 6 1/2.

And the BEST TEAM? Oh, you must mean MY team, of course. Well, the Patriots open up at home, Sunday night against a Steeler team that lost most of its major offensive weapons since last season. While the Pats always take a while to get going the first few weeks, they looked great all through preseason and should hit their home field ready to demonstrate that their dynasty is alive and roaring after they unfurl their championship banner. They’re 5 1/2 point favorites over the Steelers, and I think the Patriots will win the game by 2 scores if not more.

So there you go, nine LOCKS. Feel free to send me commission after you get rich. I’ll be here.

How BOUT Them Patriots!

This one was especially sweet. I NEVER thought they’d get back there a third year in a row. I KNEW in my widdle heart of hearts, especially after that Miami debacle, that they’d go out in the playoffs.

And yet, here they are AGAIN, Superbowl champs!

And with a Jewish MVP!!!! ONE FOR THE TRIBE, BABY!!!! Edelman, future hall of famer, just flat out amazin’!

I could muse about who is back next year and who won’t be and all that other crap, but I’ll save it for later. Too busy enjoying this now, and plan to bask in it for the time being. I spent my childhood, high school, college and young adult years watching this team either disappoint or outright suck. The last 17 years have been amazing, a blessing, something to treasure as a sports fan.

Oh, Patriots hater, are ya? Don’t like Brady? Don’t like Belichick? Well, then…


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