It’s been a while since I posted my football gambling picks on this blog. Why not kick off the NFL season with a bunch of picks ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEED to make money?
Well, if not for you, certainly for Vegas or whatever offshore online sportsbook you’re throwing money away on. Someone will make money off these picks.
I didn’t post my college picks for Week 1 last week, but TRUST ME, I did better than 50%. This time, it’ll be on the record.
Let’s start with those whiny college bums, shall we?
I like Army plus 22 1/2 at Michigan. Michigan ought to win this game, but I don’t think they’ll win by THAT much, and Army is actually a pretty decent team. And speaking of huge spreads that I don’t think will be covered, I’ll go ahead and take likely game loser New Mexico State plus a whopping 55 against Alabama. ‘Bama will win, and ‘Bama will absolutely CRUSH opponents, especially when they play out of conference, but they usually don’t roll up the points to such a huge degree – I could see them winning this game by 30-ish or even 40-ish points, but 55? I’ll take my chances with history here.
As bad as they looked last week, I think Missouri can cover 13 over West Virginia, who have a LONG history of failing against the spread in September games historically. Missouri’s at home, they want to make up for looking like crap last week, I think that’s a recipe for a 2+ score margin here.
And speaking of looking like crap and being bitten by the bug, USC opened a 3 point favorites over Stanford. It’s down to 1, but even with the wildcard of the backup frosh QB needing to step in for USC, I’ll go with a most likely more solid (in the immortal words of Linc Hayes) Stanford team plus the 1 point.
I looked over the opening NFL lines, and as reluctant as I am to usually bet the NFL during September at all, I gotta say that a few of these jumped out at me as real possibilities. I think the Forty Niners can cover 1 over the Buccaneers, and that the Jimmy G has returned Niners will do decently this year, although that division is really a lock for the Rams. And speaking of the Rams, I’ll take them to roll up some points in a “we lost the Superbowl by not scoring, so here’s a message that our offense is still here” type game and cover 3 over the Panthers.
I like the Chiefs to cover 3 1/2 over the Jaguars. As much as the Jags should be better this year with a decent QB and less drama than last year’s huge disappointing season, the Chiefs under Andy Reid always get off to a flying start, scoring a lot of points and getting everyone to believe until they slow down during the second half of the season and fall to my team in the playoffs. But week 1, to cover only 3 1/2? I’ll buy that for a dollar.
Another team looking to send a message after getting totally robbed last year would be the Saints, who I can see pounding a Texan team in some disarray, suffering some key injuries in the preseason. Take the Saints to cover 6 1/2.
And the BEST TEAM? Oh, you must mean MY team, of course. Well, the Patriots open up at home, Sunday night against a Steeler team that lost most of its major offensive weapons since last season. While the Pats always take a while to get going the first few weeks, they looked great all through preseason and should hit their home field ready to demonstrate that their dynasty is alive and roaring after they unfurl their championship banner. They’re 5 1/2 point favorites over the Steelers, and I think the Patriots will win the game by 2 scores if not more.
So there you go, nine LOCKS. Feel free to send me commission after you get rich. I’ll be here.