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Wagstaff’s Picks: Reckoning 2017 November 26, 2017

Posted by Jim Berkin in Football.

The verdict is in: I suck.

The number crunching I did the last few weeks might have made for a nice hobby, but clearly does not have the same success rate in predicting rough ideas of scores & lines as it seems to (so far, anyway) in the NBA. My earlier method of combining spread records with a rough calculation had slightly better results, but no mechanical formula I could concoct would consistently crack the 60% barrier I needed to get past.

I went a crappy 9-15 this past weekend, bringing the final season totals to 65-73-3, a 47% winning percentage. UGH.

It translates to roughly being down 14 1/2 betting units assuming none of those wins were money lines.

For a comparison, in just the past few days, a nearly identical method of handicapping NBA games has a record of 13-4, ahead 7.7 betting units. I think I know what I’ll be focusing on for the next several months as far as sports handicapping goes. I will not be posting my activity along those lines here, unless there’s some sort of shocking outcry. And I say shocking since it didn’t really look like additional traffic to this blog got driven by these football posts. I’d have a better sense of schaudenfreude if my winning percentage was better, but anyone who bets serious money on this stuff was wise to avoid me this year.

But hey, the Pats won today! They’re getting banged up, but they’re certainly looking better than they did earlier in the season. The big test will be the Pittsburgh game in a few weeks.

And a rough plot for the third installment of the Wagstaff detective novels has come together, finally. So that’ll be the other thing I start pouring time into.




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