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Football Is Back! And So Are Wagstaff’s Picks. September 8, 2016

Posted by Jim Berkin in Football, Horse Racing.
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93660I spent most of my Labor Day weekend watching football & betting Del Mar.

I probably should have watched more football.

The closing days of Del Mar are ALWAYS a crazy crapshoot the way I see it. For the past several years, the pattern has been for 25-to-1 shots and up to win the non-stakes races down the card, with no discernible pattern to it whatsoever. This year, after picking likely winners in the stakes portion of a THREE MILLION DOLLAR pool pick 6 sequence (Yow!), and getting all of ’em, thank you very much…. I tried picking the other half of the races in the sequence based on whatever factors I could assume led to huge odds upsets. My horses in those races finished 2nd, 4th and way, way out of the money. So much for that thirty bucks.

I’ll be taking a break from the SoCal tracks until Santa Anita gets going again at the end of the month. The pools at Los Alamitos aren’t quite there for me yet.

In the meantime, I can regale you with football picks.

I don’t like making picks the first week of college ball, although the 11 points Houston got versus Oklahoma would have tempted me plenty in Vegas (and turned out to be right). After reviewing the odds of both college & pro games this week, here’s what I think.

In the pros, with nothing to go on but team reputation in week one, I’d take the Bengals to cover 2 over the Jets, and the Steelers to cover 3 over the Redskins.

I don’t have high hopes for the Brady-less Patriots playing in Arizona, but I hope to be pleasantly surprised. They went 11-5 with Brady out for an entire year, and Belichick could probably coach a Star Trek convention trivia panel to win an NFL game, so who the hell knows?

In college games, there’s still not a lot to go on comparative-stat wise, so I’ll go with historic patterns and my (pasta) gut and pick Ball State plus 16 against Indiana, and a wishy-washy pick of Alabama to cover 29 1/2 against West Kentucky.

Want a scientific saber-metric type approach to football? Check this article out, it’s pretty interesting.

This weekend needs to be spent editing the new Wagstaff book. It’s on the way…

 

 

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