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Oscar Predictions 2015 February 20, 2015

Posted by Jim Berkin in Movies.
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What better way to return to this blog than with my Oscar handicapping? I did pretty well last year without seeing any of the movies, so here’s hoping for a repeat.

I always tell myself I ought to post more frequently on this thing, but I WORK FOR A LIVING, Y’KNOW?? Although if I posted all the stupid links I put up on facebook on here instead, this blog would certainly be more active and attract more clickbait. It might be a plan!

Anyway, after reading through the nominees and reading the tea leaves, here’s how I think it’ll play out on Sunday night:

Best Picture: Even though it seems people either love it or hate it, Birdman seems to be the one they’ll pick here. It’s a movie about an actor who redeems himself artistically despite a lost career and a needling critic…. one of the largest voting sections of the academy are actors, and any movie where Hollywood can say “Hey, that’s about ME!!!!” will win awards.

Best Director: Alejandro Inarritu for Birdman.

Best Actor: As long as I’m on a Birdman kick, I think they’ll give this one to Michael Keaton over Eddie Redmayne.  It’s really a career award for Keaton, kind of the way John Wayne won for True Grit. The feeling will be it’s probably his best chance at the thing, it’s his time, it’s his turn, etc etc. He’s well liked enough by everyone in the biz, and Redmayne has the “He’s young and will be back someday” vibe to him.

Best Actress: This one is the easiest to pick – Julianne Moore played someone dieing of a mentally debilitating disease, which already puts her at 80% of full Oscar. Moore played Sarah Palin in HBO’s Game Change a couple of years back, a tv movie basically designed to portray Palin as the stupidest person in the history of the world. Considering the way Hollywood feels about Palin, they’ll be giving Moore awards for the rest of her life regardless of what she does. So, we are at 100% full Oscar!!!

Best Supporting Actor: JK Simmons. Basically another career award.

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette. They can’t give it to Streep every year, y’know.

Original Screenplay: Usually Best Picture & Screenplay match, BUT since Birdman had 4 writers, and since Hollywood seems to have a hard-on for giving him an Award for who he basically is, I think this one goes to Wes Anderson for Grand Budapest Hotel.

Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game. They gotta give it somethin’

Animated Feature: How To Train Your Dragon 2

Animated Short: Feast

Live Action Short: The Phone Call

Foreign Language Film: Ida

Cinematography: Birdman

Costume Design: Grand Budapest Hotel

Editing: Boyhood 12 years worth of work? It’s gotta take this one, even if editing and picture usually match since editors make up the other large voting block. But I think the actors will outvote ’em for best picture.

Make Up: Grand Budapest Hotel It’s always the movie with the most blatant make-up.

Production Design:Grand Budapest Hotel

Original Score: Johan Johannsson, The Theory of Everything

Original Song: “Glory” from Selma, because they have to give it somethin’

Sound Editing: American Sniper

Sound Mixing: American Sniper  War movies usually do well here, and while scifi usually trumps it, the sound in Interstellar has generated a lot of complaints from the geeks who pay attention to this category. So, a slight nod to American Sniper here.

Visual Effects: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Documentary Short: Our Curse

Documentary Feature: Virunga

Other predictions? Well, Robin Williams will definitely end the memorial reel. The production numbers will be boring as watching, well, the Oscar telecast. Neil Patrick Harris will be adequate as host.

Whether or not I win the party pool with these picks remains to be seen. But at least I know the food will be good where I’m going this year, even if it’s a schlep from my house & my kitty. The sacrifices I make for ART…….

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