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Preakness Predictions 2014 May 16, 2014

Posted by Jim Berkin in Horse Racing.
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marxbrorace

So close…. SO close on that damn Derby, where my 1-2-3 finished 1-3-4 thanks to a last minute surge by a 30-1 shot to sneak into 2nd.  I have to admit that even if I’d spread more money out to throw some longshots in to exotic bets, I don’t think I would have included the placer. Good thing I only bet on the cheap….. but a trifecta hit for what probably would have  been a few hundred bucks would have been very very nice.

After looking at the field for this year’s Preakness, it’s really Derby winner California Chrome‘s race to lose. None of the other horses in the field, I think, can really challenge the speed levels of Chrome, hence the 3-5 opening line.

But there’s always the “too soon after the last race” factor that figures into the Triple Crown cycle, and the way that Chrome faded a little bit towards the end of the Derby stretch, making me think as the races get longer (especially the Belmont coming up), Chrome could be overtaken by a late-surger.

I don’t see a late surger in this field, but if I had to pick a 2nd-likely-candidate to win in case Chrome has a bad day at the track, I’d go with the Baffert trained Bayern, also a nice price at 10-1 right now.

I can’t really put together any combo bets since the rest of the field feels so random to me. I think I’ll wait until the Belmont when some Derby performers return, rested, to see what some more predictable scenarios might be.

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