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It’s Pointless To Predict The NFL, 2012 Edition September 3, 2012

Posted by Jim Berkin in Football.
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Ah, football is back! Something to take my attention away from what is looking more and more like a late September collapse by the injury-addled overly-longball-dependent Yankees & an election season that constantly reveals via social networking that this nation seems engaged in an endless shouting match.

Oh wait – we also have new Dr. Who episodes. Another welcome distraction!

Anyway, I’ve spent much of this holiday weekend watching the opening of the college season & checking out the would-be national powers, as well as who might be fooling the oddsmakers even if I’m not planning a fall trip to Vegas.

Why can I bet on horse races via the internet legally but not other sports? It’s so frickin’ STUPID.

I’ve also been reading assorted predictions for the upcoming NFL season. There are some consistencies among the various prognosticators – EVERYONE is picking the Patriots to win the AFC East, the Texans to win the AFC South & the Packers to win the NFC North. Nearly everyone picks the Falcons to win the NFC South & the Ravens to win the AFC North.

The contrarian in me says they’re always wrong about something – but what?

It’s easy for me to look at Herm Edwards insisting that the Eagles will win the Super Bowl and say “He’s out of his mind,” but a lot of the other stuff seems possible.  A friend of mine must be liking all the people picking the Falcons to win big this year and the people picking Matt Ryan as a possible MVP.  After all, he’s running for Vice President, isn’t he?

Aw, dammit! Back to politics again. Okay, I need to watch that and stick to football.

Here’s where I’m the contrarian optimist: the most common Superbowl prediction is Packers over Patriots, which means that it likely won’t happen. HA!

Although the Pats better be there, DAMMIT! Brady’s got maybe 3 or 4 years left in him. Ryan Mallet looks decent, but come on…. historically, nearly every team that built a run of championships around a hall-of-fame QB needed total rebuilding after that QB retired. The only exceptions I can think of are Joe Montana to Steve Young, and possibly Bret Favre to Aaron Rodgers, but there were a lot of lean years in between on that one.

So I won’t even bother picking division winners or playoffs. It will all depend on whatever combo of key injuries takes out a team or two, which rookies will actually make a difference, and what heretofore unknown group of players below the radar the past few seasons “suddenly” look like a great team and take all the predictors by total surprise, like the 49ers did last year.

And in the end, whoever is healthy and simply playing on a hot streak in December/January will go further than they deserve to on paper, something the mother-f-ing NY Giants proved last year, to be sure.

My Patriots will be on national TV maybe half the time out here on the west coast, including the Thanksgiving evening game to accompany my face-stuffing. Other than that, I’ll be down the street at the sports bar downing beers & snacking on fried calamari more often than last season, from the looks of the schedule. I’m sure all the waitresses down there missed me last year. I think one of them did a comedy routine with an empty chair labelled “Where’s Jimmy the perv?”

Aw, crap, back to politics. This either means I’m predicting the Patriots win 350 electoral votes, or I’d like to watch football & drink beers with Clint Eastwood (I think we’d all want that, honestly), or I need to watch some movies actually worth blogging about as opposed to the past couple of weeks’ crop on my DVR. Pickings have been thin lately, to be sure.

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Comments»

1. zombie apocalypses - November 27, 2012

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