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Belmont Stakes Predictions 2012 June 7, 2012

Posted by Jim Berkin in Horse Racing.
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So, will we have a triple crown? It’s certainly been a while since Affirmed took it, back when disco ruled the airwaves and Saturday Night Live was funny.  1978 was a long long time ago to be sure.

Why? Well, probably because horses really aren’t being bred and trained for the Triple Crown anymore. There are hardly any mile and a half races like the Belmont, and horses aren’t running long routes every two to three weeks the way the Kentucky Derby-Preakness-Belmont clip comes along. So most often, the Derby winners fail to win the Preakness. Every so often like this year, we get the excitement of a Derby/Preakness winner going into the Belmont, usually as a favorite only because of the wishful thinking that a Triple Crown winner will generate excitement for the sport in a time when its popularity is waning, especially when pitted against other forms of gambling.

Which is too bad, since it’s a great sport. And all the PR damage & lack of market-building to a younger audience is nearly entirely self-inflicted. Stupid infighting means we have no HD cable channel entirely devoted to the sport, covering all races & providing high quality analysis featuring the leading handicappers from around the nation. The star power of both specific horses, trainers & jockeys is frittered away.

Oh, don’t get me started. But I won’t fly into a rant here about how I’m often the youngest guy in the Vegas sports book betting horses, and I’m an OLD FART, fer cryin out loud.

It’s time to pick the Belmont! Yay!

Well, I’ll state right off that I don’t think we’ll have a Triple Crown. Yeah, I’m sure I’ll Have Another will run a great race, but it’s that long length of the Belmont that becomes the final test, where horses who run a mile or even a mile and a quarter like lightning weaken and falter towards the end of that final stretch. Think back to the Kentucky Derby when I’ll Have Another pulled that late surge to pass Bodemeister… there was also another horse putting on an amazing late surge, but without enough speed to overtake the winner, and that horse was Dullahan. But Dullahan was moving faster than I’ll Have Another at that point, and would passed him with another quarter mile tacked on. And that was after chasing the lightning pace being set by Bodemeister, something that will not be happening here. And Dullahan has had more rest than I’ll Have Another by skipping the Preakness.

So, I’ll be picking Dullahan as my top choice to win.

I think I’ll Have Another has a great chance to hit the board, however, and I’ll certainly include him in any exotics I put together, although I can only see two other horses possibly winning this race: Paynter & Union Rags.  Both of them can probably run this distance well, and both accelerate nicely in route stretches.

And that’s the 1-2-3-4 order I think they’ll finish. The only possible surprise I might throw into the mix for hitting the board and not winning would be Street Life, who has gotten steadily better with each race, is in good condition, and also runs very well in a route stretch.

I’d love to see another Triple Crown, but I don’t think it’ll happen this year. But I’ll be happy to be wrong since it’ll be good for the sport (though not as good as all the ideas that would flow from my brilliant rant. And that rule applies to nearly all subjects.)

UPDATE: So, the radio greets me this morning with the news that I’ll Have Another has been scratched due to tendonitis & will also be retired to the stud farm. I keep writing to Victoria’s Secret about the idea of retiring me to a slightly different style of stud farm with no success. Conspiracy theories abound on various horse racing boards, but the bottom line is that a lot of the excitement has gone out of this race. I’ll stick with my picks for the top 4 possibilities, however… although after seeing how many random posts to comment boards list the same horses I have, I’m guessing the payoffs on exotics will be minimal here. Dullahan has already gone from 5-1 to 9-5 in the morning line. Ah well.

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Comments»

1. Randy - June 8, 2012

Have any horses continue to race after going through the Derby series (and winning two of them)? I thought they usually went for stud after that.

Jim Berkin - June 8, 2012

I’m sure there are some… and now there’ll definitely be one with I’ll Have Another, which I guess is a great name for a stud horse when you think about it.

2. NiHAWmA "The Only ONE" - June 9, 2012

The 2012 Belmont Stakes lost some luster without I’ll Have Another.
Will there be any excitement at all? Are we going to see a climactic finish?
It’s going to be a toss-up now between DULLAHAN and UNION RAGS.
The outside shots will be coming from STREET LIFE and PAYNTER.
MY ADONIS will be my long shot.
To all the participants, 🙂 Good luck !


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