Oscar Handicapping 2011

It’s been a while, but your gracious host is back, with this year’s Oscar predictions! I’ve been meaning to blog more movie entries, with all the old movies I’ve been gorging on via the DVR, but I’ve been busy with bombarding lit agents about the new Wagstaff novel & sorting through their various responses so far, which range from “We brain-dead Philistines simply cannot fathom your brilliance, thanks and goodbye forever” to “Hmmm…. send us a little and we’ll see….”

So here’s hoping. Perhaps Plan B should be to pull a Charlie Sheen & get lots of media attention, and even if I don’t, well, I’ll certainly be having a good time, right?

One of my brothers is a big fan of Two & A Half Men, while I’m more partial to The Big Bang Theory – I was looking forward to producer Chuck Lorre’s vanity cards after the Sheen kerfuffle, but alas… I think he’s suspended writing them, probably at the behest of CBS’ Lawyerarmy™

Maybe Sheen’s gaggle of porno girls could write them. That could be entertaining.

Is “gaggle” the proper term? Should it be a herd, or a colony, a clowder? Maybe a flock, although I think if I opened my front door to them, I’d prefer a swarm. It’s been pretty cold lately. Then again, a rookery sounds a lot sexier.

Anyway, let’s get to predictions involving even MORE annoying celebrity egos and look at this year’s Oscars:

I’ve seen very little this year, but I always make my predictions based on other principles of handicapping. Starting with the acting categories, I think Christian Bale will win Supporting Actor, edging out Geoffrey Rush. I think they want to give “The Fighter” some awards in a year where I think “The King’s Speech” will grab a lot of major categories. But despite the conventional wisdom that points to Melissa Leo winning Best Supporting Actress for “The Fighter,” I think Halee Steinfeld will win for “True Grit.” The quirky picks always come in the supporting categories, and I have a gut feeling about this one.

Picking Best Actor is easy – Colin Firth for “The King’s Speech.” He played someone overcoming a disability and they always go for that. Actress is a close call – while Natalie Portman seems to be the favorite, I’m thinking the voters will go with the “she’ll be back someday” theory with Portman, perhaps with “No Strings Attached” in their minds the way “Norbert” scuttled Eddie Murphy a few years back, and instead give the award to Annette Bening for “The Kids Are All Right.” This might also provide the only political grandstanding of the evening (always a great part of Oscar entertainment) if she gives a speech about gay marriage.

Come to think of it, the only woman who could ever nail Warren Beatty down to a lasting marriage ought to have very interesting things to say on the subject.

I think “Inception” will win Cinematography and the Sound Editing awards, “Toy Story 3” will win Best Animated Feature, and “Inside Job” will take Best Documentary, despite all the hype Banksy has been getting. Want another random prediction of one of the minor awards? “Killing In The Name” will win Best Documentary Short since it’s by far the most hand-wringingly PC.

Back to bigger awards: since screenplay, director & film are always overlapping in various ways, I’ll call original screenplay, director & film all going to “The King’s Speech,” while adapted screenplay goes to “The Social Network,” because they’ll want to give it something.

Rounding out some random predictions on the telecast: I’m thinking Tony Curtis gets pole position on the memorial reel (which I hope they actually televise this year instead of showing us the screen it’s being projected on WHERE WE CAN’T READ ANYTHING), I’m guessing cohosts Franco and Hathaway are likeable but overly scripted, nearlky everyone presenting will be announced as the star of their upcoming film to plug, the production numbers will be tedious (there’s a tough prediction to make, eh?), and the entire long march of a slog of a chore of a onerous debacle will clock in at 3 hours and 47 minutes, with an over/under of 5 minutes.

I’ll be missing my usual bowling night to watch this thing. Every year I wonder why I bother, and the next year, I’m back again for more….

…. just like Charlie Sheen, I guess.

Maybe he’ll host next year, along with Alex Jones and a rhumba (that’s a group of rattlesnakes. Cool, huh?) of porn girls. Somewhere, Bob Hope would be smiling.