I’m great at picking the college games… the NFL, not so much.

I’m also great at smiling at attractive women walking by me while I’m on my way to lunch. I’m so great at it that they come over to me and ask me if I “want to party.” I must be really special!

This is how you know the economy is bad – hookers who look kinda like Khandi Alexander from that lame-ass CSI Miami with David Caruso putting on his sunglasses are still trolling for clients on a Monday morning. It must have been a slow weekend.

Don’t get me wrong – I talked to other women while I was there. While I sat for a while in the sports book on Saturday handicapping Hollywood Park, I say next to a young woman who was also handicapping Hollywood Park, while drinking red wine. Well, I thought… this is certainly interesting. I’ve NEVER seen a woman handicapping horse races in a Vegas sports book. It’s always old men, usually angry and bitter or merely tough and grizzled from years of losing money on races… you know, people I can truly identify with as my future self, if not my present one.

So, I suppressed my shyness and chatted her up. Turns out she was also an Angeleno, a lawyer yet, whose grandfather had taught her to handicap. He did a good job since she certainly knew more than me. We had some pleasant conversation, and I could tell she wasn’t interested in me and was just putting up with me, but she gave me one of her drink coupons before leaving early.

SO I WIN!!!!

Come to think of it, getting a drink coupon and nothing else might be the best relationship I’ve had in a while.

I got 3 out of 4 right in the final pick 4 at Hollywood on Saturday, too, but I must admit that I’m glad I lost. I’ve never hit a pick 4, and I’d hate for the first one to come as the result of an injured jockey & a horse that needed to be put down at the end of the last race. Money’s not that important to me. (No wonder women ignore me!)

Anyway, the football results: I went 13-8 in the college games – I changed my mind at the last minute about betting the Southern Miss/Tulsa game, a mistake since I got it right… but there you are. I went 3-6 in the NFL, thanks to the Steelers & Bengals sucking, and the Giants, Packers & Cardinals not covering. The Patriots won, but I will not bet on them, fearing the WHAMMY! I bet a total of $414 and came out ahead $16. I’ll add that into the season’s virtual totals.

And Brown lost to Columbia?? What MAD UNIVERSE is THIS???

Season Totals:

College: 124-107-4
NFL: 32-30-1
Total money bet: $4229, up $701

Perhaps next week’s picks will have virtual hookers to go with the virtual betting. Stay tuned.

This week the bets will be for real, inbetween some horse race betting, drinking, and eating way too much.

Whoring? Probably not. I’ve been really tired lately.

No money amounts here or parlay choices – those will be calculated when I’m actually there – but I will report the winnings/losses upon my return. Not sure if the IRS reads this blog, but I happen to be pretty honest about such things.

In The College Games:

Let’s start with Ohio State by 12 1/2 over Michigan, Ohio U in a straight-pick over N. Illinois, Northwestern plus 7 against Wisconsin in a game I think will be closer, Iowa to cover 10 over Minnesota, S Florida to cover 11 1/2 over Louisville and Rutgers to cover 8 over Syracuse.

I like Indiana plus 3 against Purdue in a game they might win, Boston College to cover 3 1/2 over North Carolina, Kentucky plus the 8 1/2 against Georgia in a game I think will be closer (sorry David), and Arkansas to cover 10 over Mississippi State.

I think Connecticut plus 6 against Notre Dame is a good bet in a game I think the Irish win by a squeaker if at all, UCLA to cover 4 1/2 against Arizona State, Stanford to cover 7 over Cal, Ole Miss to cover 4 over LSU, and Texas Tech plus 6 against Oklahoma in a game I think they could win.

Finally, there’s Colorado State by 4 over New Mexico, Arizona plus the 5 1/2 against Oregon (yeah, I know, I’m nuts), Southern Miss to cover 8 over Tulsa, New Mexico State plus a big 30 against Nevada (I think Nevada wins in the teens), Troy to cover 16 1/2 over Florida Atlantic, LA Lafayette plus 2 1/2 against LA Monroe in a game they might win, and Mid Tennessee State by 11 over Arkansas State.

Brown will beat Columbia. I doubt there will be odds on it, though. Usually only the Harvard/Yale game is up there.

In The NFL:

I like the Steelers to cover 10 over the Chiefs, the friggin’ Colts by 1 over the Ravens, the Giants by 6 1/2 over the Falcons, the Packers by 6 1/2 over the Forty Niners, the Vikings by 10 1/2 over the Seahawks, the Bucs (yes) plus 11 1/2 against the Saints (I’m thinking it’s closer), the Cardinals by 9 1/2 over the Bears, the Bengals by 9 1/2 over the Raiders, and the Eagles by 3 over the Bears.

The Patriots will beat the Jets. They will beat them down.

So hopefully I’ll turn a profit – I’m not thinking of going too nuts here with real money, and I want to have a decent amount on hand to play the horses as well. When in Rome…

Basically a wash this week due to some poor money management – a lesson I will take to Vegas with me.

The REAL lesson is how unpredictable the NFL is, especially amongst the medicore 5-4, 4-5 teams out there that are totally random in terms of when they win and lose. Someone explain the Washington Redskins to me – they lose to the Lions and Chiefs, and then beat the Broncos.

Anything can happen and probably will! Join the NFL this Sunday for some madcap antics! Cue the bad sitcom music…

I went a decent 17-10-1 in the college games, though my lone parlay went down with only 2/4 picks right. In the NFL, I was 3-4, but all the losses were bigger bets than my 3 wins. Bah. Put it all together, and I was down a total of $5 for the week, making the entire effort nearly a waste of time.

Season Totals:

College: 111-99-4
NFL: 29-24-1
Total money out: $3815, up $685

Ah, but that’s all just pretend…. the REAL money gets laid out this weekend. And regardless of how well I do, there’ll definitely be the bonus of a meal at Enoteca in the Venetian and probably the Craft steak house over at MGM. There’s also the possibility of some interesting chats with the horseplayers and other football bettors hanging around the sportsbook. I just hope to GOD they leave the smelly cigars at home. Gack.

Even this little bastard knows that when it’s 4th and 2 on your own 28 yard line, you punt.

Better luck in the playoffs. Maybe you won’t take your stupid pill that morning.

And now, off to grouse.

The final paper test before actual Vegas betting next week – and it looks like the odds makers are getting sharper, at least by my own methods of analysis.

While I’m picking roughly the same number of games this week, my confidence level in most of them is more restrained, so there won’t be as much money out there, nor as many parlay attempts. Whether or not this is the story next week when I’m putting real money on the line remains to be seen – but I have to be as emotionless as possible here if I theoretically want to keep getting decent results. Cue Mr. Spock…

In The College Games:

None of the spreads really leap out at me in terms of being out of whack with how the teams compare, but I was able to pick four match-ups that will comprise a lone $20 parlay play, as well as $20 for each single bet: I think Ole Miss can cover 4 1/2 over Tennessee, Pittsburgh can cover 6 1/2 over weekly-spread-blowing Notre Dame in a game I think Pitt can win by more than 1 touchdown, Kansas State over Missouri in a straight pick, and Florida International to cover 2 points over North Texas, who I think will lose by more than a touchdown.

In the next tier at $10 a pop are Wisconsin by 9 over Michigan, Purdue plus 3 against Michigan State, Kentucky by 3 over Vanderbilt, Maryland plus a big 18 1/2 against Virginia Tech in a game I think will be closer, Memphis plus 1 1/2 against UAB, SMU by 6 1/2 over UTEP, California by 2 over Arizona, Marshall plus 3 against Southern Miss, North Carolina plus 3 1/2 against Miami, Georgia by 4 over Auburn, Arkansas by a big 13 1/2 over Troy and Mid Tennessee State by 12 1/2 over Lousiana Lafayette.

And now, the bargain bin, at $5 each: Louisville by 7 1/2 over Syracuse, Virginia plus 4 1/2 against Boston College in this week’s upset special, Iowa plus 17 against Ohio State in a game I’m thinking will a close defensive battle, Indiana plus a big 25 against Penn State in another game I think will be closer, Florida State plus 5 1/2 against Wake Forest, North Carolina State plus 8 1/2 against Clemson since I’m nuts, BYU to cover 27 over New Mexico, Kansas plus 3 1/2 against Nebraska, Stanford plus 10 1/2 against USC in a game I think will be very close, and a very possible upset special: the sequel, Oregon by 18 over Arizona State, Utah State by 13 over San Jose State, and Florida Atlantic plus 4 against Arkansas State.

In The NFL:

Out of all the games, I think the best bet is the Falcons by only 1 over the Panthers, so $25 on that one. $10 each on the Broncos to cover 3 1/2 over the Redskins and the Saints by 13 1/2 over the Rams. Five bucks each on the Jets by 7 over the Jaguars, the Bengals plus 7 against the Steelers in the game that will start everyone talking about just how far the Bengals can go this year, the Chargers by 1 over the Eagles, and the Ravens to cover a big 10 1/2 against the hapless Browns on Monday night.

Total money out: $345. Kinda low compared to previous weeks, but there you are… it only counts for real next week anyway.

The Patriots plus a point against the Colts? I gotta admit, if I were in Vegas this week, I’d be betting New England on that one. Brady is on and the Colts barely got by the Texans last week. Betting FOR my team is always permitted, you know.

Not only did Brown beat Yale 35-31 and the Patriots beat the Dolphins 27-17 (and obviously I’m too lazy to give each of those their own separate blog entries this week), but I did pretty well on my picks – although much more money could have been amassed had I been better at the betting theory component.

Ah well… but at least I didn’t lose!

For the week, I went 18-9 in the college games and 3-2 in the NFL, hitting 1 parlay bet out of the 20 for a gain of $145 on the $525 bet.

Season Totals:

College: 94-89-3
NFL: 26-20-1
Total money out: $3470, up $690.

One more week of practice, and then the real deal… looks like the Vegas trip is on!

Well, my last minute nod to Andrew Beyer’s success in picking last year’s race cost me some here, but I did manage to call the winner, Zenyatta, as well as bet the largest chunk of dough on her. I also hit an Exacta (4-7), but did not get the other half of the superfecta attempt.

So, with $71 out, I got back $76 on the win bet and another $43.70 on the Exacta, for a total of $119.70, or a ROI of 68.59%. Not too bad!

Having a pretty decent day of football picks as well… more on that later.

I haven’t handicapped a horse race since a Vegas trip last summer, where I relied solely on the Daily Racing Form past performances as opposed to the slightly-more detailed Bloodstock Research (BRIS) versions. My results were pretty good, though. Most of my money came from hitting a superfecta that paid me a $75 profit on a $12 bet… the rest was just betting on winners or a high-odds horse to finish in the money somewhere. The chat I had with a friendly Kentucky Fried Chicken exec was probably the most entertaining part of the sports book session that day, since I got to hear stories of being raised in Kentucky around horses and trainers, as well as discuss college football (the guy was a Stanford business school grad, so he was a fan of the silly Ivy-league style comedy of the Stanford band) and sports in general.

That’s right, folks, I actually make friends wherever I go.

That reminds me, it might be time to visit a brothel. But I digress.

Anyway, I got the BRIS past performances for the $5 million purse Breeder’s Cup Turf Classic, Race 9 this Saturday at Santa Anita, and crunched the numbers and varying factors the best I could. As is the usual in a race like this, a couple of the entries are foreign horses with incomplete information (no split times or pace figures), so putting together exotic bets becomes more difficult.

Overall, after looking all of it over, I will go with the undefeated favorite Zenyatta (4) to win. In a mile and a quarter, a fast horse who finishes strong and accelerating will usually take it, and Zenyatta fits that bill. A big factor here (it sure was last year) is the artificial surface of Santa Anita, one that helps turf horses over dirt. Zenyatta has run many of her best races on this very surface, so as much as the turf horses that people are favoring like Rip Van Winkle (10) or not favoring like Twice Over (5) might run very well in this race, I don’t think they have the speed or late pace to catch Zenyatta in the end.

Andrew Beyer is picking Rip Van Winkle. He got everything right last year in this thing… that’s got to be taken into consideration. But my own analysis tells me that Rip Van Winkle is NOT the best turf runner in this race, which is pretty much what Beyer is basing his pick upon.

If anything, I think another horse in the field that will make a fine run of it is Richard’s Kid (6), who has great speed and closes wonderfully in distance races like this one and on this surface. This is the long shot I’ll include in my win bet.

The other horses I can see finishing in the money or making a real run for the win are: Colonel John (2) who finished 6th last year but is running better lately; Mine That Bird (1) mostly because Borel is riding him and always manages to climb back into it after a mile has gone by, and this time he’s starting at the rail; Gio Ponti (7) who has the best speed/pace and general stats of any of the turf horses out there, better than Rip Van Winkle; and finally my sentimental “let’s see if he wins me any money at 20-1″ pick of Girolamo (9), a dirt horse who hasn’t run well at this class level, but great Beyers for the last 3 races, great recent works and impressive jockey/trainer statistics. This one could sneak in there…. but not beating Zenyatta.

So, putting it all together: I’ll go with a $20 bet on Zenyatta (4) to win, as well as $5 on Richard’s Kid (6) to win, and $10 on Rip Van Winkle (10) to win, as a nod to Beyer mostly!
$1 exactas of 4,6 with 1,2,4,6,7,9,10 for $12,
and a $24 superfecta try of 10 cent bets with 4,10/1,2,4,6,7,9,10/1,2,4,6,7,9,10/1,2,4,6,7,9,10
Total out: $71

3:45pm Pacific!

The college match ups get more intense at this point in the season, and so far the oddsmakers have been pretty sharp in determining point spreads. I’ve been winning or losing picks by half a point to a point in far too many cases this year. And now they, like me, are using more and more information to evaluate things. I’m hoping my positive trends continue, but to be honest, this week’s slate of picks leaves me feeling fairly unsure.

But who cares? NO GUTS, NO GLORY!

In The College Games:

In my $25 category this week, I like Cincy to cover 16 1/2 over Connecticut, especially since I’m thinking they want to roll up lots of points to improve in the rankings. I think Kansas State can beat Kansas outright, so I’ll certainly take them plus 2 1/2 points. Ditto for Houston beating Tulsa, and I’m getting them plus a point besides. Finally, even though they’re not a great team and don’t have a good history against his opponent, I’ll go with North Texas by 1 over LA Monroe since their offense is better by (what I figure) is a touchdown or two.

In the $10 category: I like Pittsburgh by a big 21 1/2 over Syracuse, Minnesota by 7 over Illinois, North Carolina State by 6 1/2 over Maryland, Indiana plus 10 1/2 against Wisconsin in a game I think will be close, Arkansas by 7 over South Carolina, Navy plus 11 against Notre Dame (who have major problems against the spread this year), Alabama by 8 over LSU, Colorado plus 3 against Texas A&M, Arizona State plus 10 against USC (who I think will squeak by), Michigan by 6 over Purdue, UAB by 6 1/2 over Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State by a big 13 1/2 over LA Lafayette, and I also like the Under 40 in the Ohio State/Penn State game.

In the “why not?” $5 category: Northwestern plus 16 against Iowa (losing, but making them nervous), Duke plus 10 against North Carolina, Oklahoma State by 7 over Iowa State, Tulane plus 7 against UTEP (now I know I’m insane), Akron plus 3 against Kent State (insanity confirmed), UCLA by 4 over Washington, Stanford plus 6 1/2 against Oregon (I think Oregon will win a close one), Virginia plus 13 1/2 against Miami, Utah State by 2 over Hawaii, and since you never know, I’ll go with Western Kentucky with a big 24 against Troy.

In The NFL:

Not too many picks this week – those point spreads are WAY too close for comfort in most cases. But, I like the Bengals plus 3 against the Ravens, since I think the Bengals will win the game. I also like the Texans plus 9 against the Colts in a game I think will be close. I think the Falcons can cover 10 over the Redskins, and the Packers can cover 9 1/2 over the Buccaneers. Finally, I think the Forty Niners will beat the Titans and cover their 4 points. $10 on all of those, except for $5 on the Texans.

Parlay bets: All 20 three-team combos out of: Cincy, Kansas State, Houston, North Texas and the Bengals, for $10 each. Total money out = $525

The Patriots will beat the Dolphins, too. And you know I NEVER bet on my team…. the football Gods will punish me if I do.

Been waiting 9 years for this to happen again.

Yeah, I know. Cubs fans have been waiting 103 years and counting. The Mariners, Rangers & Nationals have never even made it into the series.

Spare me. It’s not my fault your team perennially sucks. Deal with it.

They’re not the textbook-perfect crush-the-opposition Yankees of ‘98-’99, but I’ll take ‘em. I’ll take ‘em as long as they win, and it’s nice to see them getting along so well, consistently supporting players like Burnett and Swisher through their wild rides through good and bad. My Yankees of ‘77-’78 hated each other and fought all the time and won anyway. I prefer winning without the drama.

Oh, and Mariano Rivera is the best relief pitcher EVER. Derek Jeter is the best shortstop EVER. Texiera’s glove made up for his weak post-season bat, Matsui is an amazing clutch hitter, Johnny Damon remains a class act and a dependable rally sparker, A-Rod is overrated the way multiple orgasms are overrated, Andy Pettite belongs in the hall of fame, CC Sabathia can beat anyone, and Jorge Posada holds everything together.

The Phillies are tenacious, fearless and can never be counted out, either. The Yankees earned this one, and it wasn’t easy. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this matchup again in the post-season.

And in the off-season? WE’LL BUY THE REST OF THE LEAGUE!!!! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAA!

The stock market also does well when the Yankees win. So quit yer whinin’