Wagstaff’s Picks – Weekend of December 20, 2010 December 18, 2010

Let’s see how well my newfound contrarian conversion and its inherent logic do now that we’re into who-makes-the-playoffs season in the NFL.

I was hoping the oddsmakers would peg the Rams as underdogs against the Chiefs, but I guess Matt Cassel’s appendectomy stitches are the big question mark for that one. The Rams are actually favored in that game by a point and a half… and as much as I think they’ll probably win that game outright, I’m only gonna bet $10 on it for this little exercise. Sam Bradford looks like a solid NFL quarterback so far, and the Rams have a shot at the playoffs in the (Cut to Comic Book Guy) worst NFL division ever.

My only favorite to go for this week are the Raiders by 7 over the Broncos. The Raiders are, surprisingly, in the hunt for a playoff spot and will be playing accordingly tough. The Broncos are in disarray – when the only interest people have in your team is whether or not they will start Tim Tebow, it doesn’t say much for the rest of the organization.

Somehow, the Browns get a point against the Bengals. Another rookie quarterback who is looking decent – Colt McCoy – gets the start from now on according to Cleveland, and the Bengals just flat out suck. Take the Browns.

I like the Bills plus 5 1/2 against the Dolphins – Miami has been playing well, although they got lucky by getting to play a reeling Jets team last week, and the Bills have been the hard-luck losers all year with an axe to grind… I think they’ll keep this one close if not win it outright.

In another battle-of-suck, the Cardinals get 3 points against the Panthers. Since I’m not sure why anyone would get points against the Panthers, I’m taking the Cardinals.

My two favorite picks of the week: first, the Texans get a point and a half against the Titans, another team in free-fall. The Texans pulled a great comeback last week against a much better opponent and then lost a heartbreaker. I think they’ll bounce back this week against a much weaker team. And speaking of that opponent, the Ravens are one and a half point favorites over the Saints. The Saints are a much better team than the Ravens, they’re playing better now than they have all season, and I think they’ll view this game as a dress rehearsal for the playoffs much more than Baltimore and win the game outright. Take the Saints plus the points.

The Bets:

$200 on Texans & Saints. $100 on Cardinals, Browns & Bills. $50 on the Raiders and $10 on the Rams. Also, all 20 3-team combos from every one of those except the Rams game at $10 a pop. Total money out as I swing for the fences again = $960

I may as well be generous… it’s Christmastime, after all…

Coming up in the next few days… Bowl picks!