Basically a wash this week due to some poor money management – a lesson I will take to Vegas with me.

The REAL lesson is how unpredictable the NFL is, especially amongst the medicore 5-4, 4-5 teams out there that are totally random in terms of when they win and lose. Someone explain the Washington Redskins to me – they lose to the Lions and Chiefs, and then beat the Broncos.

Anything can happen and probably will! Join the NFL this Sunday for some madcap antics! Cue the bad sitcom music…

I went a decent 17-10-1 in the college games, though my lone parlay went down with only 2/4 picks right. In the NFL, I was 3-4, but all the losses were bigger bets than my 3 wins. Bah. Put it all together, and I was down a total of $5 for the week, making the entire effort nearly a waste of time.

Season Totals:

College: 111-99-4
NFL: 29-24-1
Total money out: $3815, up $685

Ah, but that’s all just pretend…. the REAL money gets laid out this weekend. And regardless of how well I do, there’ll definitely be the bonus of a meal at Enoteca in the Venetian and probably the Craft steak house over at MGM. There’s also the possibility of some interesting chats with the horseplayers and other football bettors hanging around the sportsbook. I just hope to GOD they leave the smelly cigars at home. Gack.

The final paper test before actual Vegas betting next week – and it looks like the odds makers are getting sharper, at least by my own methods of analysis.

While I’m picking roughly the same number of games this week, my confidence level in most of them is more restrained, so there won’t be as much money out there, nor as many parlay attempts. Whether or not this is the story next week when I’m putting real money on the line remains to be seen – but I have to be as emotionless as possible here if I theoretically want to keep getting decent results. Cue Mr. Spock…

In The College Games:

None of the spreads really leap out at me in terms of being out of whack with how the teams compare, but I was able to pick four match-ups that will comprise a lone $20 parlay play, as well as $20 for each single bet: I think Ole Miss can cover 4 1/2 over Tennessee, Pittsburgh can cover 6 1/2 over weekly-spread-blowing Notre Dame in a game I think Pitt can win by more than 1 touchdown, Kansas State over Missouri in a straight pick, and Florida International to cover 2 points over North Texas, who I think will lose by more than a touchdown.

In the next tier at $10 a pop are Wisconsin by 9 over Michigan, Purdue plus 3 against Michigan State, Kentucky by 3 over Vanderbilt, Maryland plus a big 18 1/2 against Virginia Tech in a game I think will be closer, Memphis plus 1 1/2 against UAB, SMU by 6 1/2 over UTEP, California by 2 over Arizona, Marshall plus 3 against Southern Miss, North Carolina plus 3 1/2 against Miami, Georgia by 4 over Auburn, Arkansas by a big 13 1/2 over Troy and Mid Tennessee State by 12 1/2 over Lousiana Lafayette.

And now, the bargain bin, at $5 each: Louisville by 7 1/2 over Syracuse, Virginia plus 4 1/2 against Boston College in this week’s upset special, Iowa plus 17 against Ohio State in a game I’m thinking will a close defensive battle, Indiana plus a big 25 against Penn State in another game I think will be closer, Florida State plus 5 1/2 against Wake Forest, North Carolina State plus 8 1/2 against Clemson since I’m nuts, BYU to cover 27 over New Mexico, Kansas plus 3 1/2 against Nebraska, Stanford plus 10 1/2 against USC in a game I think will be very close, and a very possible upset special: the sequel, Oregon by 18 over Arizona State, Utah State by 13 over San Jose State, and Florida Atlantic plus 4 against Arkansas State.

In The NFL:

Out of all the games, I think the best bet is the Falcons by only 1 over the Panthers, so $25 on that one. $10 each on the Broncos to cover 3 1/2 over the Redskins and the Saints by 13 1/2 over the Rams. Five bucks each on the Jets by 7 over the Jaguars, the Bengals plus 7 against the Steelers in the game that will start everyone talking about just how far the Bengals can go this year, the Chargers by 1 over the Eagles, and the Ravens to cover a big 10 1/2 against the hapless Browns on Monday night.

Total money out: $345. Kinda low compared to previous weeks, but there you are… it only counts for real next week anyway.

The Patriots plus a point against the Colts? I gotta admit, if I were in Vegas this week, I’d be betting New England on that one. Brady is on and the Colts barely got by the Texans last week. Betting FOR my team is always permitted, you know.

The college match ups get more intense at this point in the season, and so far the oddsmakers have been pretty sharp in determining point spreads. I’ve been winning or losing picks by half a point to a point in far too many cases this year. And now they, like me, are using more and more information to evaluate things. I’m hoping my positive trends continue, but to be honest, this week’s slate of picks leaves me feeling fairly unsure.

But who cares? NO GUTS, NO GLORY!

In The College Games:

In my $25 category this week, I like Cincy to cover 16 1/2 over Connecticut, especially since I’m thinking they want to roll up lots of points to improve in the rankings. I think Kansas State can beat Kansas outright, so I’ll certainly take them plus 2 1/2 points. Ditto for Houston beating Tulsa, and I’m getting them plus a point besides. Finally, even though they’re not a great team and don’t have a good history against his opponent, I’ll go with North Texas by 1 over LA Monroe since their offense is better by (what I figure) is a touchdown or two.

In the $10 category: I like Pittsburgh by a big 21 1/2 over Syracuse, Minnesota by 7 over Illinois, North Carolina State by 6 1/2 over Maryland, Indiana plus 10 1/2 against Wisconsin in a game I think will be close, Arkansas by 7 over South Carolina, Navy plus 11 against Notre Dame (who have major problems against the spread this year), Alabama by 8 over LSU, Colorado plus 3 against Texas A&M, Arizona State plus 10 against USC (who I think will squeak by), Michigan by 6 over Purdue, UAB by 6 1/2 over Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State by a big 13 1/2 over LA Lafayette, and I also like the Under 40 in the Ohio State/Penn State game.

In the “why not?” $5 category: Northwestern plus 16 against Iowa (losing, but making them nervous), Duke plus 10 against North Carolina, Oklahoma State by 7 over Iowa State, Tulane plus 7 against UTEP (now I know I’m insane), Akron plus 3 against Kent State (insanity confirmed), UCLA by 4 over Washington, Stanford plus 6 1/2 against Oregon (I think Oregon will win a close one), Virginia plus 13 1/2 against Miami, Utah State by 2 over Hawaii, and since you never know, I’ll go with Western Kentucky with a big 24 against Troy.

In The NFL:

Not too many picks this week – those point spreads are WAY too close for comfort in most cases. But, I like the Bengals plus 3 against the Ravens, since I think the Bengals will win the game. I also like the Texans plus 9 against the Colts in a game I think will be close. I think the Falcons can cover 10 over the Redskins, and the Packers can cover 9 1/2 over the Buccaneers. Finally, I think the Forty Niners will beat the Titans and cover their 4 points. $10 on all of those, except for $5 on the Texans.

Parlay bets: All 20 three-team combos out of: Cincy, Kansas State, Houston, North Texas and the Bengals, for $10 each. Total money out = $525

The Patriots will beat the Dolphins, too. And you know I NEVER bet on my team…. the football Gods will punish me if I do.

Not too bad, especially in terms of the way the money management is outperforming the batting average. And if I’d gotten a field goal in the Idaho and Ohio State games going my way, the payoff would have been another $1700. Ah well… I’d be a lot more annoyed if that happened betting actual money.

A Vegas trip is looking more and more attractive…

The weeks totals: 16-12 in the college games, 5-4 in the pros, with a gain of $155. I hit 1 parlay for $60 in there.

Season Totals:

College: 76-80-3
NFL: 23-18-1
Total money out: $2945, up $545

That’ll do pig, that’ll do.