Predictions, Predictions February 2, 2010
Posted by Jim Berkin in Football, Movies.Tags: Academy Awards, Oscars, Superbowl
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The table has been set for this year’s Superbowl and the nominations for this year’s Oscars were announced this morning, so here’s my possibly non-worthless take on the outcomes of both.
Let’s start with the Superbowl, where the Colts opened as 4 point favorites and are currently at 5 1/2 points over the Saints. As much as I (and everyone else except die-hard Colts fans and members of the Manning family) will be rooting for the Saints in this one, I think the Colts win & cover the spread. Despite the questionable status of Dwight Freeney, I think Manning will outgun Brees in what ought to be a real shootout. It’ll be a fun game to watch, I could even see the Saints up at halftime… but in the end, I think the Colts will grind down the game and win by about a touchdown. I’d rather they didn’t, since the worse Peyton Manning does in the post-season, the easier it will be for me the rest of my life to argue how Brady was better…. then again, if Manning can go out and win a bunch more Superbowls, then more power to him, I suppose. To borrow from Henny Youngman, take the Colts! Please!
And now for the Oscars!
This year, I hardly saw anything. I’m about as dispassionate about the Oscars as I am about the Patriot-less Superbowl.
During my annual Oscar-viewing soiree, we try to predict every damn one of the awards that are part of the broadcast, meaning we try to call who is going to win for Best Documentary Short & Best Sound Editing. I’ll put my immediate off-the-cuff predictions of the major categories here. I doubt they’ll change by March 7.
Best Supporting Actress: This one is fairly easy, since Mo’Nique has been winning some of the earlier awards.
Best Supporting Actor: Another easy one – Christoph Waltz has been generating buzz since that movie came out.
Best Actress: This looks like it’s pretty much between Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock… and even though Bullock was in an audience-favored role, I think the Academy feels the need to give Streep another award at this stage in her career, after her record number of nominations. And she hasn’t won since 1983. And she will get lots of votes from all the old scrag actresses in Hollywood that loved the way she played to their 60-year old fantasies about their self-image in that Nancy Meyers chick flick. And Bullock’s character was a conservative Christian. So, I’ll pick Meryl Streep.
Best Actor: Another easy pick – Jeff Bridges gets the career award. Everyone knows he should be an Oscar winner, somewhere, for the great body of work he’s done. This is the year.
Best Director & Best Picture: Yep, they go together like lox & bagels. Despite ten best picture noms versus the traditional five directors, I think we’ll still get a matched set. While the additional Best Picture noms throw a little confusion in the works, when it really comes down to it, the big box-office audience pleasers in the bunch (Avatar & The Blind Side) won’t make it… I’m guessing Up wins for Best Animated Picture (as well as Best Original Screenplay, over my Best Picture prediction)… the only dark horse in there is Up In The Air, but nobody got overly excited over that. So, I think the Academy will pat itself on the back with its first ever woman director to win, and I’ll pick Kathryn Bigelow and The Hurt Locker as winners here.
Up In The Air will get adapted screenplay. Avatar will sweep the technical awards. Steve Martin & Alec Baldwin will be fairly funny, but the show will be as boring as usual. Karl Malden gets pole position on the memorial reel.
And unfortunately, the special Oscar they’re giving Roger Corman will not be part of the broadcast. Philistines.
Wagstaff’s Picks: NFL Playoffs 2010 January 8, 2010
Posted by Jim Berkin in Football.Tags: NFL, Superbowl
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No point spreads, just picking the winners of games here & how the playoffs will work out all the way “straight down the line,” as Barbara Stanwyck told Fred MacMurray in one of my favorite movies ever. Yeah, that’s right… Netflix it now, bitches!
In the opening round:
I think the Bengals peaked earlier in the season – granted, they laid down last week against the Jets because the game didn’t matter to them, but I don’t think they’ve looked very good in the last few weeks anyway, and the Jets have been telling themselves how tough they played Indy beforehand. Despite this game being in Cincy, I’m going with the Jets based on late-season momentum.
Earlier in the year, I’d've picked the Eagles over the Cowboys in a second, since Dallas was playing like the perennially over-rated team they often are, but the past few weeks Romo has been avoiding the mistakes he’s made in the past, especially in big moments in big games, and the Eagles have looked like they’ve been backing into it – beating weak teams & losing to strong ones. This one’s in Dallas, too, where the Eagles got shellacked last week playing for a better position. Take the Cowboys.
I know I’m biased. I know Welker is out. But the Patriots will squeak by the Ravens on Sunday thanks to Faulk, Edelman & Watson stepping up, as well as their ability to stop the Baltimore running game. Baltimore has also been geniuses this season at shooting themselves in the foot, if not the head, with ill-timed penalties and sloppy mistakes. The game is in Foxboro as well. Take the Patriots.
Green Bay has been playing brilliantly towards the end of the season, despite a nail-biting loss to the Steelers a couple of weeks ago. Arizona has been looking shakier, and despite Warner’s experience advantage over Aaron Rodgers, I’ll go with the Packers over the Cardinals.
Afterwards:
According to my 1st round picks, the matchups would wind up being:
Packers at Saints: Take the Saints. They’ve been playing shaky lately, but they’ll get it together in what ought to be another nail-biter. They’ll win by a field goal or less.
Jets at Colts: Take the Colts. The Colts, by beating up on a much weaker team like the Jets, will regain some confidence after Caldwell’s stupid decision to ruin their chance at perfection, something that clearly angered them. But it won’t be enough in the championship game…
Cowboys at Vikings: Take the Vikings. Another great matchup, but Minnesota is simply a better team.
Patriots at Chargers: It kills me to say this, but I am a realist: Take the Chargers. The Pats suck on the road, are riddled with key injuries, and have a poor defense. San Diego has been playing great in the second half of the season. That won’t end.
I’ll go with the Chargers over the Colts in the AFC, and the Vikings over the Saints in the NFC.
Super Bowl Champions, 2010: San Diego Chargers.
I hope I’m wrong and the Patriots run the table… but I’m not expecting it. It’ll be a wonderful surprise if they do, to be sure. I’m nearly burnt out on watching football with all the bowl games recently, so I’ll keep telling myself that I’ll be going cold turkey from February to August. And then there are those Yankees…
Wagstaff’s Picks Results – Bowl Games & Season Totals 2009-10 January 7, 2010
Posted by Jim Berkin in Football.Tags: BCS, Gambling, Sports Betting
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I’m nearly football-ed out, but I’ll gather the energy to watch the Patriots take on the Ravens this Sunday in Round 1 of the NFL playoffs. I’m thinking the Pats might squeak this one out without Welker, at home, against a Baltimore team that loves to make stupid mistakes. If they win, they get to play San Diego away, and…. well… I’m thinking that won’t be pretty.
So, let’s look at my season totals, after going an amazingly mediocre 13-13-1 in Bowl Games (I may as well have flipped a coin) for a gain of $45. In College Games this year, I went a total of 145-137-6. In the NFL, I was 41-38-1. Not great percentage-wise, but some adept money management and a parlay hit here and there had me come out ahead for the season $421.
That’s right, I’m retiring to a Italian villa!
Okay, maybe I’m just making pasta at home. But it’s very good pasta.
Wagstaff’s Picks – Bowl Games Part 2 – The 2010 Games December 31, 2009
Posted by Jim Berkin in Football.Tags: BCS, Gambling, Sports Betting
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Not doing too well in my 2009 picks which finish up today, but what the hell – here are the rest of my college picks for this season. I’m only betting $10 on each of these games, except where I’ve indicated otherwise. Now let’s go out there and win one for the Zipper!
Friday January 1:
The Outback Bowl: And no, I will NOT be waking up at 8am Pacific for this one. Even though the SEC is a superior conference, I like Northwestern plus 8 points against Auburn in this one.
Gator Bowl: There’s nothing quite like a bowl named after a mediocre Burt Reynolds movie. Perhaps the Rent-A-Cop Bowl can’t be far behind. I’ll take West Virginia to cover 2 1/2 over Florida State.
Capitol One Bowl: Oboy! This means tons of those stupid ads where people pick the photos to put on their credit cards, enabling them to run up far too much deby buying crap they don’t need and then whining how the banks enabled them through predatory lending. And yes, I really DO hate everyone. At least this will be a good game, and I’m thinking Penn State covers the 2 points over LSU.
Rose Bowl: The granddaddy of them all, as they always say when promoting it…. as I write this post, people are already camping out along Colorado Boulevard in Pasadena to get a seat at the Rose Parade preceding the big game. They’ll be sitting there & sleeping there all night. They are crazy. The floats can be impressive, but you can see them on TV after sleeping off New Years’ eve. In the game, as much as my stats matchup favors Ohio State by @6 points, my gut tells me otherwise – so I’m going with Oregon by 4 over Ohio State. We’ll see what’s right – math or gut.
Sugar Bowl: Here we have the “who’s coach messed with their minds more?” competition. I think Florida is clearly the superior team, and they must be determined to prove something after losing to Alabama in the SEC championship. They’re getting a LOT of points here, and as much as Cincy will want to stick it to their coach’s memory by coming out strong, I’m thinking that if Florida scores early and quickly, they’ll hold onto the momentum and win big enough to cover the 12 1/2 points they’re getting. But I’ll only bet 5 bucks on it.
Saturday January 2:
International Bowl: I never heard of this one. How can they call it the “international” bowl when only the USA plays this version of football? Maybe someone got confused and thought “South” Florida and “North” Illinois were foreign countries. Whatever. I’ll take North Illinois plus 7 points, but for $5.
Cotton Bowl: I remember when this was a REAL bowl game, because I’m old. And here I am predicting another SEC team going down…. risky, risky! I’ll take Oklahoma State plus 3 against Ole Miss.
PapaJohns.com Bowl: It’s not even the Papa John’s Bowl, it’s the dot-com version. It’s not even about actual PIZZA, it’s about their GOD DAMN WEBSITE. That’s just sad. I’ll predict another SEC failure by taking Connecticut plus 4 against South Carolina.
Liberty Bowl: This one might be my silliest prediction since Arkansas has shown such offensive strength, but they haven’t been as impressive on the road, and this time I’m going with the math over my gut (which is all gas anyway, trust me). I’ll take East Carolina (another foreign country) plus 8 points here, for a risky $5.
Alamo Bowl: They should rename this one the “Dysfunctional Bowl” since it’s a contest between two programs in total chaos – one team fires its coach for abusing injured players (who are related to ESPN announcers… brilliant publicity move there) and the other team suspends a bunch of players for brawling in a dormitory. With all that crap going on, there’s no way in hell I’d bet money on the outcome of this game. Normally I would have thought Texas Tech would win, but who the hell knows now? NO PICK.
Monday January 4
Fiesta Bowl: This one is sort of the second-tier national championship game, that is if you worship the BCS nonsense as God. Ideally, the winner of this one ought to play the winner of the Alabama/Texas game, but without a true playoff system, there’d still be arguments to be had. This ought to be a great matchup, however, with the Boise State offense going up against TCU’s defense and vice versa… this game could really go either way, but I’ll make a $5 bet on TCU to cover 7 1/2 points here.
Tuesday January 5
Orange Bowl: Another good matchup, with a strong (if erratic) Georgia Tech team going up against the best Iowa team in decades… and I think Iowa’s defense will win the day in the end. I’ll take Iowa plus 3 1/2 points.
Wednesday January 6
GMAC Bowl: GMAC just got taken over by the government since it, like GM, was going bankrupt. Does this mean that that Federal Government is running a college bowl game? Does that mean that this game will cost too much money and force everyone to stand in endless lines to get the proper paperwork done before they can enter the stadium? Well, unless they’re Jihadists without passports carrying bombs, of course. Wouldn’t want to offend. But I digress. They may as well call this game the “Hey, there IS a game on tonight!” Bowl since it’s not exactly between a pair of overwhelming powers, but it’s a decent matchup, and I like Central Michigan to cover 3 1/2 over Troy here.
Thursday January 7
BCS National Championship: This is it, the big tamale… a great match between two undefeated teams. But let’s take a closer look: Texas barely got by Nebraska and looked weak earlier this year against Wyoming, of all teams, while Alabama has rolled along. The only team that put any real scare into Alabama were their perennial rivals, Auburn, the one team that always gives them a tough time. Looking around the web, I found numerous predictions on this one each making their own long-winded analysis. The website I use to analyze stats had Texas winning by 6 points.
And I thought: No.
Alabama is the superior team here, and has played (and defeated) tougher opponents than Texas this year. My math put them on top. So does my gut. And when math & gut work together, well, that sounds like a ’70s cop show. I think they grind this one out and I will take Alabama to cover 4 over Texas and win the national championship.
Happy New Year! I’m hoping for a good 2010… how about you?
Wagstaff’s Picks – Bowl Games Part 1 – The 2009 Games December 22, 2009
Posted by Jim Berkin in Football.Tags: BCS, Gambling, Sports Betting
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Considering that I would have picked them, watching BYU pound the crap out of Oregon State tonight reminded me that I ought to finally get off my ass and make my first set of bowl picks. So after warming up my geek brain with a DVR viewing of Dr. Who’s “The Waters Of Mars” (which was pretty good), I went through the remaining bowl games up to December 31 and made my choices. I’ll save the rest for a post next week. Here we go!
Poinsettia Bowl, Dec 23: Utah, plus 3 against California. $25
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, Dec 24: Nevada to cover 12 1/2 over SMU, $10
Saturday December 26:
Little Caesar’s Bowl Bowl, Ohio U by 3 over Marshall, $10
Meineke Car Care Bowl (I’m still waiting for the FloMax™ Bowl), Pitt by 2 1/2 over North Carolina, $25
Emerald Bowl, USC to cover 7 1/2 over Boston College, $10
Music City Bowl, Dec 27: Kentucky plus 7 against Clemson, $10
Independence Bowl, Dec 28: Georgia by 7 over Texas A&M (you’re welcome, David) $10
Tuesday Dec 29:
EagleBank Bowl: Temple plus 5 against UCLA, $10
Champs Sports Bowl: Wisconsin versus Miami – No pick. This one is too close.
Wednesday Dec 30:
Humanitarian Bowl: Bowling Green by 2 over Idaho, $25
Holiday Bowl: Nebraska plus 1 1/2 against Arizona, $25
Thursday December 31:
Armed Forces Bowl: Houston versus Air Force – No pick. Houston ought to win, but they love blowing games they should win. And Air Force has been a bad luck pick for me all season. So, I’m avoiding this one.
Sun Bowl: Stanford plus 7 1/2 against Oklahoma, $50. Stanford is going to win this game.
Texas Bowl: Missouri by 6 1/2 over Navy, for a big-time confident $5
Insight Bowl: Iowa State plus 2 1/2 against Minnesota, $10
Chick Fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech by 4 1/2 over Tennessee, $10
That’s all for now – I’ll be back next week with the rest!
Wagstaff’s Picks Results – Week of December 19 December 21, 2009
Posted by Jim Berkin in Football, Horse Racing.Tags: Gambling, Sports Betting
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Well, I went down the tubes as far as football picks go, with a pathetic 1-3 performance, and a loss of $30. I only got the Packers right.
However, while in Vegas, I did somewhat better on college basketball games, though many of the games I picked (and picked correctly, thank you very much) were not available for betting at the Venetian for whatever reason. I made up for this by eating well, first at Enoteca San Marco at the Venetian, and then at the Craft Steak House over at the MGM.
Also checked out the new Aria casino/hotel in the ginormous city center complex that sits on a large chunk of land formerly occupied by the evil clown-faced Boardwalk Casino, a place I actually stayed at a few times going back to ‘97 or so. Each time it got dumpier, and I kept coming back for more! The Aria was very nice – basically a steel ‘n’ glass modern motif throughout, with open-spaced “walls” for the bars and restaurants surrounding the huge casino which even features some natural lighting – giving the place a very open and spacious feel. It reminded me a little of the Wynn, but less cluttered and compact. It was also pretty empty, since it had just opened four days ago and hasn’t really been hyped yet. Their sports book was nice – lots of plasma screens and an interesting S-shaped design with lots of connected alcove spaces devoted to collections of screens. They also provide both the Daily Racing Form & the pure Equibase stats that turn up on the BRIS sheets, so handicappers can have their choice or both. The only problem was poor air circulation since no matter where I sat, I was constantly batting cigarette smoke. Ugh!
The highlight of the gambling was getting the late pick 4 at Hollywood Park on Sunday – granted, it only paid about $100 and contained few surprises, but it’s the first time I’ve ever gotten one of those, and that particular score made up for the football losses. I didn’t pick Golden Gate as well, so I gave up on that track after the first few races. The drunk guy next to me, who told me he had never bet horse before and then proceeded to bet hundreds of dollars on whatever bits of random advice I gave him, made back about fifty bucks of what he bet and still went away happy. Alcohol is a wonderful thing.
Ah, and then the drive back – a horrible accident on the I-15 near Cima (coincidentally the name of one of my mom’s friends, years ago, who my dad couldn’t stand) locked us up in literally stopped traffic for about 10 miles and an extra 2 hours. Just awful. I’m glad to be home.
Stellar bowl picks coming up later this week. Whether or not I decide to do a Santa Anita day after they open on the 26th remains to be seen, but considering I handicapped that pick 4 in under a half hour… it’s pretty tempting!
Wagstaff’s Picks – Week of December 19 December 18, 2009
Posted by Jim Berkin in Football.Tags: Gambling, Sports Betting
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Only a few NFL picks for this weekend, ones I’ll actually be betting on during my quick trip back to Vegas. I don’t like the odds of any of the early college bowls, so I’ll be posting the bowl picks I’d actually bet on & predictions of the major bowls regardless of betting later.
I looked over all the comparative stats between the Saints and the Cowboys, who play Saturday night, and even after thinking how the Cowboys really shouldn’t lose three games in a row, and the Saints might rest some people since they’re already in the playoffs, and 9 points is more than the Saints have covered recently…. I kept coming back to the simple notion that the Cowboys SUCK and are overrated. So, I’ll go with the Saints by 9 over the Cowboys.
I only liked three of Sunday’s games for the odds involved, so I’ll only bet on those while I watch the Patriots play Buffalo and hopefully win. First, I think the Steelers have no reason to care anymore and the Packers do, so despite the game being in Pittsburgh, I think Green Bay will win outright, so I will take the Packers plus a point against the Steelers. With Vince Young and a belief they might make the post-season, I think the Titans can cover 3 1/2 over the erratic Dolphins. I realize this might be wishful thinking on my part, since if the Patriots keep self-destructing, it’ll be Miami that sneaks in to win that division, so clearly I’m wanting them to lose, lose, lose. Finally in a game with what I thought were the most lopsided odds, I’ll take the Chargers to cover 6 1/2 over the Bengals. Granted, the Bengals will be unpredictable considering the tragedy they went through this week, but the Chargers are playing with the mindset that they will be the AFC champs and the Bengals are a team they could face in the playoffs – this will be a rehearsal to them, they’re at home, and they can win by more than a touchdown.
That’s it. I’ll update betting amounts into the totals when I report my results. A lot will depend on how much I spread out on the other gambling, how drunk I get, and so forth. Suffice to say, however, that I’ll bet larger portions on the Chargers & Packers. The rest of my betting dollars will be thrown at college basketball games (risky, risky… it’s something I know little about… but some paper-betting this week hasn’t gone too badly, using practically the same methods as picking football), and horse races.
Whether or not anyone asks me to party? Take the “under.”
Wagstaff’s Picks Results – Week of December 12 December 13, 2009
Posted by Jim Berkin in Football.Tags: Gambling, Sports Betting
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Not too bad for a purely NFL week. The only thing that messed me up was the bet on Denver to break Indy’s winning streak. Ah well.
The Patriots won, but look very disoriented. Randy Moss was clearly out of it. It’s like driving a car making all sorts of noises and hoping they’ll just go away if you drive more instead of taking it to the shop.
Anyway, I went 4-2 with a gain of $65. Not too bad for light betting. We’ll see how next weekend goes, where the locale will be Vegas and the money will be as real as the vacation I’ll be on. Wheeee!
Season Totals:
College: 132-124-5
NFL: 41-38-1
Total money bet: $5144, up $376
I’ll add my bowl predictions from later this week into the college totals after the Alabama/Texas championship game on January 7. I think Alabama will win that game… haven’t looked at the spread yet, however.
Wagstaff’s Picks – Week of December 12 December 11, 2009
Posted by Jim Berkin in Football.Tags: Gambling, Sports Betting
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The first of our NFL-only editions begins in a week where the Patriots are looking very self-destructive. They’ve been losing on the road all season, there’s a disruptive atmosphere in camp, Belichick seems to be losing it…. I’m starting to agree with the people who think the Pats won’t make the playoffs at all this year. This week they face Carolina at home and are big 13 point favorites. I don’t know…. I just don’t know. I’d like to see them put everything together, pound the crap out of the Panthers, feel like their old selves again, and run the table to the end of the season.
But I doubt it. It just doesn’t feel right.
In the bettable games this week, I think the Vikings can cover 6 1/2 over the Bengals, especially since Minnesota might be thinking it’s a Superbowl rehearsal. I like the Packers over the Bears by 3 1/2 since Green Bay has been playing very well lately and Chicago hasn’t really impressed me, especially after I thought a lot more of them back in the pre-season. Plagued by injuries, I think the Falcons will fall to the Saints, who can cover the 10 points. I’m surprised the Chargers are 3 point underdogs against the Cowboys, who are highly over-rated. San Diego has been playing pretty well lately, and I’ll take them plus the points here. I also like the Eagles plus a point against the erratic Giants (didn’t they play each other only a couple of weeks ago??).
Finally, my RISKY UPSET prediction: I think this is the week the Colts go down, so I’ll take the Broncos plus the 7 points in a game I think Denver will win. Wishful thinking? Sure! Why not?
The Bets:
$10 on the Saints and Eagles. $25 on the Broncos, Vikings and Chargers. A big $50 on the Packers. And just for more pain, a $10 parlay of Broncos-Vikings-Chargers-Packers. Total money out = $150
Coming in the next week: All my bowl predictions, along with a final set of college bets.
Wagstaff’s Picks Results – Week of December 5 December 6, 2009
Posted by Jim Berkin in Football.Tags: BCS, Gambling, Sports Betting
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Wow, I suck!
Maybe not as much as the Patriots these days (losing to MIAMI??? Good CHRIST!), but the past couple of weeks’ picks have been pretty poor. While getting some big ones right (like Alabama over Florida, or Nebraska scaring Texas), the vast majority have gone bad, taking parlay money down the drain with them.
I was better at picking college games than the NFL this year, and now the pro games are all that’s left, other then the big line up of bowl games taking us into early January. If I end up going to Vegas again before Christmas this year, the bulk of the gambling dollar will be put on horse races, and possibly a few college basketball games. There won’t be a lot of football worth betting on, I fear, at least not anything I’ll be feeling too confident about. It seems like anyone can beat anyone in the NFL this year (or come close, as the lowly Redskins did with the Saints today). I keep thinking back to the guy I met a year ago in the Las Vegas Hilton superbook who told me his theories of how the NFL fixes games…. I wonder how his picks have been doing this year?
Anyway, I went a mediocre 4-5 in the college picks and a pathetic 2-4 in the NFL, losing every damn parlay with only 3/6 of my teams winning, for a total loss of $180 for the week.
Season Totals:
College: 132-124-5
NFL: 37-36-1
Total money out: $4994, up $311.
At least I bowled decently tonight….
