The college match ups get more intense at this point in the season, and so far the oddsmakers have been pretty sharp in determining point spreads. I’ve been winning or losing picks by half a point to a point in far too many cases this year. And now they, like me, are using more and more information to evaluate things. I’m hoping my positive trends continue, but to be honest, this week’s slate of picks leaves me feeling fairly unsure.

But who cares? NO GUTS, NO GLORY!

In The College Games:

In my $25 category this week, I like Cincy to cover 16 1/2 over Connecticut, especially since I’m thinking they want to roll up lots of points to improve in the rankings. I think Kansas State can beat Kansas outright, so I’ll certainly take them plus 2 1/2 points. Ditto for Houston beating Tulsa, and I’m getting them plus a point besides. Finally, even though they’re not a great team and don’t have a good history against his opponent, I’ll go with North Texas by 1 over LA Monroe since their offense is better by (what I figure) is a touchdown or two.

In the $10 category: I like Pittsburgh by a big 21 1/2 over Syracuse, Minnesota by 7 over Illinois, North Carolina State by 6 1/2 over Maryland, Indiana plus 10 1/2 against Wisconsin in a game I think will be close, Arkansas by 7 over South Carolina, Navy plus 11 against Notre Dame (who have major problems against the spread this year), Alabama by 8 over LSU, Colorado plus 3 against Texas A&M, Arizona State plus 10 against USC (who I think will squeak by), Michigan by 6 over Purdue, UAB by 6 1/2 over Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State by a big 13 1/2 over LA Lafayette, and I also like the Under 40 in the Ohio State/Penn State game.

In the “why not?” $5 category: Northwestern plus 16 against Iowa (losing, but making them nervous), Duke plus 10 against North Carolina, Oklahoma State by 7 over Iowa State, Tulane plus 7 against UTEP (now I know I’m insane), Akron plus 3 against Kent State (insanity confirmed), UCLA by 4 over Washington, Stanford plus 6 1/2 against Oregon (I think Oregon will win a close one), Virginia plus 13 1/2 against Miami, Utah State by 2 over Hawaii, and since you never know, I’ll go with Western Kentucky with a big 24 against Troy.

In The NFL:

Not too many picks this week – those point spreads are WAY too close for comfort in most cases. But, I like the Bengals plus 3 against the Ravens, since I think the Bengals will win the game. I also like the Texans plus 9 against the Colts in a game I think will be close. I think the Falcons can cover 10 over the Redskins, and the Packers can cover 9 1/2 over the Buccaneers. Finally, I think the Forty Niners will beat the Titans and cover their 4 points. $10 on all of those, except for $5 on the Texans.

Parlay bets: All 20 three-team combos out of: Cincy, Kansas State, Houston, North Texas and the Bengals, for $10 each. Total money out = $525

The Patriots will beat the Dolphins, too. And you know I NEVER bet on my team…. the football Gods will punish me if I do.

Not too bad, especially in terms of the way the money management is outperforming the batting average. And if I’d gotten a field goal in the Idaho and Ohio State games going my way, the payoff would have been another $1700. Ah well… I’d be a lot more annoyed if that happened betting actual money.

A Vegas trip is looking more and more attractive…

The weeks totals: 16-12 in the college games, 5-4 in the pros, with a gain of $155. I hit 1 parlay for $60 in there.

Season Totals:

College: 76-80-3
NFL: 23-18-1
Total money out: $2945, up $545

That’ll do pig, that’ll do.

BOO!

It’s time for some scaaaarrrrry picks, boys and girls! Just in time for Halloween weekend, when you can bob for apples, eat too much candy, and enjoy the holiday that gives far too many adult women the easy excuse they need to dress like total whores.

Yay!

I live where no annoying little bastards will be ringing my doorbell asking for candy that is RIGHTFULLY MINE, so I’ll be able to flip between the football and Game 3 of the World Series while I’m not catching up on the movies in the DVR and trying to get some work done on the novel. Busy, busy, busy, that’s me! And with my overall performance in this little exercise improving, an actual trip to Vegas in a few weeks is getting to be more and more of a probability.

So let’s do it – In the College Games:

No real games I’m overly sure of this week, since whenever I did my own estimates of point spreads, they were WAY too close to the actual odds far too often. So the ones I have the most confidence in (at $25 a pop) would be to take Idaho to cover 3 over LA Tech, Houston to cover 6 1/2 over Southern Mississippi, Boston College to cover 5 1/2 over Central Michigan, New Mexico State plus a big 44 against Ohio State, Baylor plus 13 against Nebraska, and Tennessee to cover 5 1/2 over South Carolina.

All the 4 team parlay combos from those 6 picks at $5 a pop as well, a total of 30 combos and $150 total.

After that, in the $10 level, are Cincy by 15 over Syracuse, Wisconsin by 6 1/2 over Purdue, Wake Forest plus 7 against Miami, Northern Illinois by a big 12 over Akron, Navy by 6 1/2 over Temple, Arizona State plus 6 1/2 against California, Oklahoma to cover a whopping 28 1/2 over Kansas State, Oregon plus 3 against USC in a game I think they will win, Louisville by 3 over Arkansas State, Florida International by 3 1/2 over Louisiana Lafayette, and Mid Tennessee State plus 1 against Florida Atlantic in a game I think they will win.

In the “what the hell” $5 bet category, let’s go with Indiana plus 17 against Iowa (beating the spread but losing the game), Tulsa by 16 over SMU, UTEP by 7 over UAB, Oregon State to cover 9 1/2 over UCLA, Illinois plus 7 against Michigan in what I think will be a close one, Colorado State plus 6 1/2 against Air Force, Mississippi State plus 3 1/2 against Kentucky, San Diego State by 16 over New Mexico, Washington State plus 27 1/2 against Notre Dame, and 2 unders: Under 51 1/2 in Texas/Oklahoma State, and Under 46 1/2 in LSU/Tulane.

In the NFL:

$10 on: the Bears to cover a big 13 1/2 over the Browns, the Vikings plus 3 against the Packers, the Cowboys by 9 1/2 over the Seahawks, the Giants by 1 over the Eagles, and Under 40.5 in the Jets/Dolphins matchup.
$5 on the Jets in that one to cover 3 1/2 over the Dolphins, as well as $5 on the Ravens by 3 1/2 over the Broncos, the Panthers plus a big 10 against the Cardinals, and the Jaguars plus 3 against the Titans.

Total Money out: $535

That’ll buy a lot of dark chocolate M&Ms.

Much like Tom Brady, I get a little better each week… though I’m certainly not coming home to Giselle (though I think Tom prefers the phrase “breaking the plane of her end zone” to “coming home,” which sounds more baseball, but I digress).

While my overall percentage of picks isn’t stellar, the money allotment and parlay plays paid off big time this week to put me ahead and in the position of playing mostly with the house’s money. If I can be consistent at this, a weekend of actual betting in Vegas may be in order sometime in the next few weeks.

Totals for this week: 14-16-1 in the college games, 3-1-1 in the NFL with 5 (!) 4 team parlay hits for a money gain of a big $410.

Season Totals:

College: 60-68-3
NFL: 18-14-1
Total Money Out: $2410, up $390.

YEAH!